Wegovy pill market share holds near 80 percent as Novo raises outlook

BAGSVAERD, DENMARK. Wegovy pill market share reached about 80% of new U.S. prescriptions in its class in the third quarter, Novo Nordisk said on Wednesday, November 4. Executives gave the figure on the company's earnings call. The same day, Novo raised its 2026 sales and profit outlook for the third time this year. Its U.S. listed shares rose about 6% that morning. The share figure is company reported, and it arrives as U.S. prices for Wegovy keep falling.

Novo Nordisk Third Quarter Results Lift the 2026 Outlook

Novo Nordisk third quarter results showed adjusted and reported sales up 4% at constant exchange rates, the company said. Adjusted sales came to about DKK 79.2 billion. Adjusted operating profit rose 27% at constant exchange rates to DKK 31,720 million. Novo said part of that rise reflects a low base, because it booked DKK 9 billion of company wide transformation costs in the third quarter of 2025. Obesity sales grew 22%, executives said on the call. In its quarterly company announcement, Novo reported Wegovy pill sales of DKK 5,394 million for the quarter. BioPharma Dive put that at about $811 million and said it beat the average analyst estimate compiled by Jefferies. Both of the company's operating units, in the United States and abroad, grew sales in the quarter.

The Novo Nordisk outlook now calls for adjusted sales and adjusted operating profit to change by between minus 2% and plus 2% in 2026 at constant exchange rates. The previous range ran from a 6% fall to no growth. The release tied the change to higher expectations for GLP 1 product sales. Chief executive Mike Doustdar said in the statement: "We delivered a stronger-than-expected third quarter and are raising our full-year outlook for adjusted sales and adjusted operating profit." Those ranges are company forecasts, not results. Readers can compare them with the analyst estimates before the release, which we covered before the report. Novo also said it is preparing a U.S. launch of CagriSema in early 2027, subject to regulatory approval.

What the 80 Percent New to Brand Prescriptions Figure Measures

New to brand prescriptions count patients who start a medicine for the first time. Revenue shows what a company collected last quarter, while this count shows where new patients are going. For a drug taken every day for years, those starts can shape sales well into the future. Novo said the Wegovy pill still took about 80% of new to brand prescriptions in the third quarter, with Eli Lilly's oral rival Foundayo on the market since April. The first quarter figure was 65%, according to 24/7 Wall St, in a story syndicated by AOL. Executives said cumulative prescriptions for the pill have passed 8 million since its January launch. In its first quarter report, Novo called the tablet the only oral peptide for the treatment of obesity.

Novo said the Wegovy pill still took about 80% of new to brand prescriptions in the third quarter, with Eli Lilly's oral rival Foundayo on the market since April.

The Wegovy pill market share number has limits that readers should keep in mind. It comes from Novo's own presentation, not from an audited filing or an independent tracker. Management said IQVIA has tracked a lower capture rate for the Wegovy pill than for the rival oral drug, so outside weekly data may undercount Novo, according to 24/7 Wall St. Executives also said a Bridge program had a large effect on pill volume growth. Without Medicare Bridge volume, the wider obesity drug category was "relatively flat in the May to October timeframe," management said, per the same report. Lilly reported Foundayo sales for the quarter of $184 million, which BioPharma Dive said fell $44 million short of Wall Street estimates.

Wegovy Price Erosion Sets the Volume Test

Wegovy price erosion in the United States was 30% to 35% in the third quarter, at the high end of that range, executives said on the call. They said they expect erosion near that level, or slightly better, going forward. Lower list prices are also on the way. In February, Novo said the U.S. list price of Wegovy, Ozempic and Rybelsus would fall to $675 per month from January 1, 2027. The company said that change does not affect its direct to patient self pay prices. The arithmetic is simple. If the price for each pack falls, Novo needs more packs sold to keep sales flat. The pill is now its main source of new volume, so its uptake carries much of that weight.

Novo said the pill is adding patients without draining its injections. U.S. pill volumes grew about 20% from the second quarter, while injectable Wegovy volumes grew about 10%, executives said. The higher strength Wegovy HD pen accounts for about 20,000 prescriptions per week, or about 5% of Wegovy volume, they added. 24/7 Wall St tied the share move to the prescription figure. The shares rose 6.32% to $42.73 on Wednesday morning, according to the 24/7 Wall St report carried by AOL. The same report said Novo came into the quarter after five straight quarterly earnings per share misses. Even after the gain, the stock was down 12% for the year, it said. Share prices reflect investor views, not clinical or sales outcomes.

Oral GLP 1 Launches Abroad and What Comes Next

Outside the United States, the oral GLP 1 rollout is still young. By the end of September, the Wegovy pill had launched in the United States, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and Germany, the company said. Four more launches since then bring the total to eight markets. On the call, executives cited about 90% of the oral obesity market in the UK and about 80% in the UAE. They said Germany sold about 100,000 packs in the first six weeks. Novo expects the pill in more than 20 markets by the first half of 2027. UK weekly sales of about 60,000 packs came in below the 65,000 packs discussed at a Capital Markets Day, as early demand faded, according to 24/7 Wall St.

Several questions remain open. Novo has not shown that its Wegovy pill market share will hold as Lilly widens Foundayo's reach in pharmacies. Management said it does not "foresee why that should completely change," according to 24/7 Wall St, but that is a view, not data. It is also unclear how much pill volume came from the Bridge program, and what happens when that program stops adding patients. The 2027 list price cuts will test whether volume can outrun price. New clinical data are due soon. Novo's ObesityWeek presentation slate in Washington from November 14 to 17 includes Wegovy pill abstracts. The company has not released figures from those abstracts ahead of the meeting.

Conclusion

Novo's third quarter turned on one company reported number. The Wegovy pill market share of about 80% of new U.S. prescriptions helped lift sales, profit and the full year outlook. Prices are falling by 30% to 35%, and list prices drop in January. Whether the pill keeps that lead against Foundayo, outside trackers and Novo's own forecasts will show over the next few quarters. This report covers company results and is not medical advice.